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Thursday, July 6, 2017

Voter List Maintenance Cannot Stop the Trend as Major Parties Continue to Lose Voter Share

While routine list maintenance caused a drop in registered voters in June, 2017 both major political parties continue to bleed voter share. At the same time, as has been the trend, voter share of Non-Partisan and minor political parties continue to climb.

The list maintenance appears to have a general negative impact in Washoe County. In spite of this, the loss in voter share of both Non-Partisan and the minor parties is less than either the Democratic or Republican Party. Across the board, the sharpest growth in voter share is in the group “other” that includes the Green Party. In contrast, the Democratic Party lost voter share in all demographics and in all state senate districts and all but one state assembly district.

State-Wide
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
-2,306
-0.40
39.30
-0.05
R
-1,280
-0.26
33.13
0.00
NP
-475
-0.15
21.00
0.02
Other
225
0.23
6.57
0.03
Total not D or R


27.57
0.05
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP -0.41%; Lib +0.09%; other 5 parties +2.75%

Clark County
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
1,802
0.41
42.96
-0.09
R
1,670
0.56
28.85
-0.01
NP
1,742
0.77
21.92
0.03
Other
1,107
1.73
6.27
0.07
Total not D or R


28.19
0.10
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +0.79%; Lib +1.39%; other 5 parties +5.14%

Washoe County
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
-4,085
-4.43
35.45
-0.12
R
-3,138
-3.25
37.60
0.33
NP
-2,412
-4.67
19.80
-0.12
Other
-986
-5.26
7.14
-0.09
Total not D or R


27.15
0.00
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP -5.79%; Lib -3.83%; other 5 parties -4.76%



Rural Counties
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
-23
-0.05
24.07
-0.07
R
188
0.20
50.98
-0.03
NP
195
0.60
17.46
0.06
Other
104
0.75
7.49
0.04
Total not D or R


24.95
0.10
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +0.80%; Lib +0.62%; other 5 parties +0.46%

18 – 34 Year Old
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
-1,260
-0.80
39.45
-0.04
R
-772
-0.86
22.51
-0.04
NP
-722
-0.61
29.81
0.03
Other
-7
-0.02
8.23
0.06
Total not D or R


38.04
0.09
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP -0.88%; Lib -0.37%; other 5 parties +2.26%

55+
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
-277
-0.11
39.77
-0.06
R
158
0.06
40.53
0.01
NP
237
0.27
14.45
0.03
Other
174
0.55
5.25
0.03
Total not D or R


19.70
0.06
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +0.14%; Lib 0.72%; other 5 parties +3.18%

 Major party loses also continue in congressional and legislative districts.

Congressional Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
4
0
0
Republican
2
1
1
Non-Partisan
1
3
0
Other
1
3
0
Both CD 1, CD 2, and CD 4 continue to show the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Senate Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
21
0
0
Republican
11
10
0
Non-Partisan
6
14
1
Other
5
16
0
Unchanged. In 14 districts (66.7%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. Note the Democratic Party lost voter share in all districts. This raises questions about the party’s leadership claim of success during the just ended legislative session.

State Assembly Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
41
1
0
Republican
20
19
3
Non-Partisan
11
27
4
Other
7
34
1
Unchanged. In 31 districts (73.81%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This is unchanged from last month. However, the fact that the Democratic Party lost voter share in all but one district cannot be overlooked.


Partisanship continues to divide our society. Nevada is not immune. Given Governor Sandoval’s 41 vetoes, future analysis of committee minutes and votes along with floor votes could very well show the role partisanship impacts Nevadans’ every-day lives.  

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