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Thursday, June 15, 2017

Partisan Violence Will Not Heal The Wounds - Opinion

Perpetual optimism is a force multiplier” (General Colin Powell).

I am by nature a perpetual optimist. I believe every problem has a solution. Some are just harder to find. But as much as members of the Democratic and Republican Party speak of unity following the shooting of Congressman Steve Scalise (R – LA), I cannot help but wonder; how long will this last? In spite of my optimistic nature, I believe the answer in “not long”.

To say this country is politically divided is an understatement. Partisan differences have always existed.  But the political environment has never been this toxic. Several studies, especially those conducted by Pew Research over the past few years, have shown not only do we disagree but this disagreement extends into all aspects of our lives. We no longer trust those who do not share our political beliefs. Recent polls even use the word “hate”. We make decisions on who we consider friends and how we relate to co-workers based on the level of political agreement. As one study surmises, we have become tribal. Our respect for freedom of speech has diminished to “only if you agree with me”.

The Congressional baseball game and similar events at all levels of government are meant to be one of those times when members of opposing views can put aside their differences and have fun together. Perhaps some have personal relationships totally opposite of what they present during public discussion and in the media. Why?

Ronald Reagan and Tip O’Neill, Bill Clinton and Newt Gingrich, Trent Lott and Tom Daschle. These leaders of different political persuasion worked together for the good of the nation. I’m certain there have been similar relationships at the state and local level. Those days are gone. Elected officials may begin their political careers to serve their constituents. However, it doesn’t take long for the focus to become the next election. As their constituents become polarized, elected officials must become similarly polarized if they wish to retain their seat. As more and more voters become frustrated with this process, the number of voters in the so-called “base” becomes smaller and more dogmatic. The politicians must follow or lose the next election.

Collaboration and cooperation by lawmakers should be the norm. Finding areas of agreement then respectfully working on solutions for those where there is not agreement is how solutions are reached. A shooting should not be the wake-up call. The alarm should have gone off years ago.

It will take more than an act of violence for sanity to return to our political system. It will take a total mental reset. Elected officials need to start listening to and re-engaging voters who have become disillusioned. The betterment of our cities, counties, states and nation depend on this and must become the focus. A minority of political party members do not present a picture of the whole.  

Members of all political parties are calling for unity. Hopefully I’m wrong. But the hate and divisiveness is too deep and the pattern of forgetting, I believe, will continue.



Friday, June 2, 2017

As Partisanship Raises Its Head in the Legislature Major Parties Continue to Lose Voter Share

As I write this, the legislature is locked in partisan debate over education savings accounts, minimum wage, and the overall budget. Given this, it should be no surprise that voter registration numbers for May, 2017 again show the Democratic and Republican Party losing voter share across all but one demographic; the GOP gained voter share in Washoe County, while Non-Partisan and minor parties increase. And while there was an increase in the number of registered voters, Non-Partisan and minor parties also gained voters at a higher rate than either of the major parties.

Of special note:
In Clark County the difference in percentage of voters not affiliated with either the Democratic or Republican Party is less than one percent
           
In the rural counties, the percentage of voters not affiliated with either the Democratic or Republican Party is greater than the percent of the Democratic Party

Among 18 to 34 year olds, the percentage of voters registered as Non-Partisan is almost ten percent higher than those registered as Republican and the total not affiliated with either the Democratic or Republican Party is within one and one-half percent of those registered as Democratic

State-Wide
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
-197
-0.03
39.36
-0.04
R
-251
-0.05
33.13
-0.04
NP
835
0.27
20.98
0.05
Other
428
0.45
6.54
0.03
Total not D or R


27.52
0.08
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +0.20%; Lib +0.23%; other 5 parties +1.54%

Clark County
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
1,122
0.25
43.05
-0.05
R
756
0.25
28.86
-0.03
NP
1,212
0.54
21.89
0.04
Other
658
1.04
6.20
0.04
Total not D or R


28.09
0.08
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +0.61%; Lib +0.79%; other 5 parties +2.69%
  
Washoe County
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
-1,393
-1.49
35.58
-0.02
R
-1,328
-1.36
37.27
0.03
NP
-691
-1.32
19.92
0.02
Other
-335
-1.76
7.23
-0.02
Total not D or R


27.15
0.00
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP -1.68%; Lib -1.68%; other 5 parties -2.08%
  
Rural Counties
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
74
0.17
24.14
-0.07
R
321
0.34
51.01
-0.05
NP
314
0.98
17.40
0.09
Other
105
0.76
7.45
0.02
Total not D or R


24.85
0.11
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +0.72%; Lib +0.89%; other 5 parties +1.02%

18 – 34 Year Old
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
-520
-0.33
39.49
-0.06
R
-381
-0.42
22.55
-0.05
NP
37
0.03
29.78
0.07
Other
106
0.33
8.17
0.04
Total not D or R


37.95
0.11
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP 0.00%; Lib +0.06%; other 5 parties +1.32%

 55+
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
267
0.11
39.83
-0.03
R
378
0.15
40.52
-0.01
NP
351
0.40
14.42
0.03
Other
129
0.41
5.22
0.01
Total not D or R


19.64
0.04
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +0.34%; Lib -0.30%; other 5 parties +1.41%

Major party loses also continue in congressional and legislative districts.

Congressional Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
4
0
0
Republican
3
1
0
Non-Partisan
0
4
0
Other
1
3
0
Both CD 1 and CD 4continue to show the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. Additionally, with a shift in May in CD2, the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is within 5% difference against the Democratic Party.

State Senate Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
18
3
0
Republican
15
4
2
Non-Partisan
1
19
1
Other
2
18
1
Unchanged. In 14 districts (66.7%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

 State Assembly Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
36
5
1
Republican
29
11
2
Non-Partisan
5
32
5
Other
5
33
4
Unchanged. In 31 districts (73.81%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This is unchanged from last month.

Voters are not seeing any change in the approach of the two major political parties. Their frustration continues to manifest itself in how they register to vote. Given the voter suppression by the Democratic majority this session, I don’t expect any self-initiated change.