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Saturday, August 5, 2017

Partisanship Continues to Define and Divide Us

In two recent polls by Pew Research Center, partisanship in the United States continues to define us and divide us as a nation. This trend has been with us for almost a decade, and with these two reports, shows no sign of changing.

In a poll released July 10, 2017, the organization found that opinion of national institutions; churches / religious organizations, banks / financial institutions, labor unions, the national news media, and colleges / universities, and the impact they have on the nation differs based on political party. The study, Sharp Partisan Divisions in Views of National Institutions”, shows significant differences in four of the five areas.

Wide partisan differences over the impact of major institutions on the country

In the second poll, Partisan Shifts in Views of the Nation, but Overall Opinions Remain Negative; Just 26% say ‘their side’ wins more often than it loses in politics” released August 4, 2017 Pew looks at how people view their station in life and how they view the political landscape for “people like them”. It is interesting to note that with the change of the presidency from Democratic to Republican, the percentage who believes their side loses more also switched. In September, 2015, 79 percent of Republicans felt their side loses more. In June, 2017, 79 percent of Democrats feel that way.

Shifting partisan views on how life has changed for ‘people like you’

Partisanship continues to define and divide us as a nation. Those familiar with this blog know this is not the first Pew Research study I have highlighted. Voter frustration with what has been called “tribal” behavior is manifesting itself by voters abandoning both the Democratic and Republican Party, registering without party affiliation; Non-Partisan in Nevada, or in one of the minor political parties.

 

I believe the political parties will not willingly make the changes needed to reverse this trend and return to a political climate that fosters collaboration and problem solving, where we track wins or loses not by political party but by impact on Americans. After two attempts to have the Nevada legislature act, I am relatively certain it is the voters who will have to make the change. Nevadans for Election Reform is leading this effort in Nevada.                                                    

Tuesday, August 1, 2017

Major Political Parties’ Downward Slide Continues

Can the Democratic and Republican Party in Nevada stop the downward slide in voter share? Looking at the just released voter registration statistics for July, 2017, it does not look like it. The only bright spot for the Republican Party was in the rural counties where they had a slight gain in voter share. Except for that, both the major parties lost voter share across all tracked demographics. As has been the trend, both Non-Partisan and the minor parties gained share.

The bad news does not stop there. For the second consecutive month, the Democratic Party lost voter share in all 21 state senate districts and all but one state assembly district. In the state’s congressional districts, for the first time, both Non-Partisan and minor parties gained voter share in all four districts.

State-Wide
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
1,218
0.21
39.23
-0.08
R
1,574
0.32
33.10
-0.03
NP
1,823
0.59
21.04
0.04
Other
1,340
1.38
6.64
0.06
Total not D or R


27.68
0.10
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +0.63%; Lib +0.96%; other 5 parties +4.46%

Clark County
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
952
0.21
42.88
-0.08
R
888
0.30
28.81
-0.03
NP
1,189
0.52
21.95
0.03
Other
1,.192
1.83
6.36
0.09
Total not D or R


28.31
0.12
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +0.71%; Lib +1.11%; other 5 parties +5.97%

Washoe County
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
329
0.37
35.37
-0.08
R
526
0.56
37.58
-0.02
NP
534
1.08
19.90
0.09
Other
133
0.75
7.15
0.01
Total not D or R


27.05
0.10
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +0.95%; Lib +0.89%; other 5 parties -0.03


Rural Counties
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
-63
-0.14
24.01
-0.06
R
160
0.17
51.01
0.03
NP
100
0.31
17.50
0.03
Other
15
0.11
7.49
0.00
Total not D or R


24.99
0.03
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +0.01%; Lib +0.36%; other 5 parties +0.64%

18 – 34 Year Old
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
173
0.11
39.36
-0.09
R
237
0.27
22.50
-0.02
NP
456
0.39
29.83
0.02
Other
453
1.39
8.32
0.09
Total not D or R


38.15
0.11
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +0.40%; Lib +1.10%; other 5 parties +3.86%

55+
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
724
0.30
39.71
-0.06
R
1,063
0.43
40.51
-0.01
NP
602
0.69
14.49
0.03
Other
404
1.27
5.29
0.04
Total not D or R


19.78
0.07
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +0.76%; Lib +0.94%; other 5 parties +4.82%

 Major party loses also continue in congressional and legislative districts.

Congressional Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
4
0
0
Republican
4
0
0
Non-Partisan
0
4
0
Other
0
4
0
Both CD 1, CD 2, and CD 4 continue to show the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. Note that Non-Partisan and minor parties gained voter share in all districts.

State Senate Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
21
0
0
Republican
16
3
2
Non-Partisan
2
17
2
Other
0
21
0
In 15 districts (71.4%) and an increase of one over June, the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. Note the Democratic Party lost voter share in all districts for the second consecutive month. At the same time, minor parties gained voter share in all districts.

State Assembly Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
41
1
0
Republican
20
19
3
Non-Partisan
11
27
4
Other
7
34
1
Unchanged. In 31 districts (73.81%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This is unchanged from last month. For the second consecutive month, the Democratic Party lost voter share in all but one district.


Senate bill 103 this last session attempted to address this trend. Senate Majority Leader Aaron Ford (D – Las Vegas) refused to give the bill a hearing. Not addressing the problem will not make it go away.   

Thursday, July 6, 2017

Voter List Maintenance Cannot Stop the Trend as Major Parties Continue to Lose Voter Share

While routine list maintenance caused a drop in registered voters in June, 2017 both major political parties continue to bleed voter share. At the same time, as has been the trend, voter share of Non-Partisan and minor political parties continue to climb.

The list maintenance appears to have a general negative impact in Washoe County. In spite of this, the loss in voter share of both Non-Partisan and the minor parties is less than either the Democratic or Republican Party. Across the board, the sharpest growth in voter share is in the group “other” that includes the Green Party. In contrast, the Democratic Party lost voter share in all demographics and in all state senate districts and all but one state assembly district.

State-Wide
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
-2,306
-0.40
39.30
-0.05
R
-1,280
-0.26
33.13
0.00
NP
-475
-0.15
21.00
0.02
Other
225
0.23
6.57
0.03
Total not D or R


27.57
0.05
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP -0.41%; Lib +0.09%; other 5 parties +2.75%

Clark County
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
1,802
0.41
42.96
-0.09
R
1,670
0.56
28.85
-0.01
NP
1,742
0.77
21.92
0.03
Other
1,107
1.73
6.27
0.07
Total not D or R


28.19
0.10
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +0.79%; Lib +1.39%; other 5 parties +5.14%

Washoe County
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
-4,085
-4.43
35.45
-0.12
R
-3,138
-3.25
37.60
0.33
NP
-2,412
-4.67
19.80
-0.12
Other
-986
-5.26
7.14
-0.09
Total not D or R


27.15
0.00
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP -5.79%; Lib -3.83%; other 5 parties -4.76%



Rural Counties
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
-23
-0.05
24.07
-0.07
R
188
0.20
50.98
-0.03
NP
195
0.60
17.46
0.06
Other
104
0.75
7.49
0.04
Total not D or R


24.95
0.10
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +0.80%; Lib +0.62%; other 5 parties +0.46%

18 – 34 Year Old
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
-1,260
-0.80
39.45
-0.04
R
-772
-0.86
22.51
-0.04
NP
-722
-0.61
29.81
0.03
Other
-7
-0.02
8.23
0.06
Total not D or R


38.04
0.09
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP -0.88%; Lib -0.37%; other 5 parties +2.26%

55+
Party
Change in # Voters
% Change
% Voter Share
Difference in Voter Share %
D
-277
-0.11
39.77
-0.06
R
158
0.06
40.53
0.01
NP
237
0.27
14.45
0.03
Other
174
0.55
5.25
0.03
Total not D or R


19.70
0.06
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot access.
Change is # voters: IAP +0.14%; Lib 0.72%; other 5 parties +3.18%

 Major party loses also continue in congressional and legislative districts.

Congressional Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
4
0
0
Republican
2
1
1
Non-Partisan
1
3
0
Other
1
3
0
Both CD 1, CD 2, and CD 4 continue to show the number of voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.

State Senate Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
21
0
0
Republican
11
10
0
Non-Partisan
6
14
1
Other
5
16
0
Unchanged. In 14 districts (66.7%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. Note the Democratic Party lost voter share in all districts. This raises questions about the party’s leadership claim of success during the just ended legislative session.

State Assembly Districts
Party
# Districts Lose Voter Share
# Districts Gain Voter Share
# Districts No Change
Democratic
41
1
0
Republican
20
19
3
Non-Partisan
11
27
4
Other
7
34
1
Unchanged. In 31 districts (73.81%) the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the major parties. This is unchanged from last month. However, the fact that the Democratic Party lost voter share in all but one district cannot be overlooked.


Partisanship continues to divide our society. Nevada is not immune. Given Governor Sandoval’s 41 vetoes, future analysis of committee minutes and votes along with floor votes could very well show the role partisanship impacts Nevadans’ every-day lives.