Voter
registration for the 2016 general election has closed. Some interesting
numbers: -5.87%, -3.92%, +19.21%,
+7.93%. These are the percentage of change in voter share since the last
presidential election for the Democratic Party, the Republican Party,
Non-Partisan, and minor parties. Here is the 2012 to 2016 comparison.
State-Wide
Party
|
Change in # Voters
|
% Change
|
% Voter Share - 2012
|
% Voter Share - 2016
|
Difference in Voter Share %
|
% Change
|
D
|
50,693
|
9.62
|
41.90
|
39.44
|
-2.46
|
-5.87
|
R
|
52,062
|
11.92
|
34.73
|
33.17
|
-1.36
|
-3.92
|
NP
|
85,229
|
38.86
|
17.44
|
20.79
|
3.35
|
19.21
|
Other
|
19,214
|
25.78
|
5.93
|
6.40
|
0.47
|
7.93
|
Total not D or R
|
23.37
|
27.19
|
3.82
|
16.35
|
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot
access.
Change is # voters: IAP +8.95%; Lib +5.84%; other 5 parties
+114.10%
Clark County
Party
|
Change in # Voters
|
% Change
|
% Voter Share - 2012
|
% Voter Share - 2016
|
Difference in Voter Share %
|
% Change
|
D
|
48,545
|
12.44
|
45.82
|
43.09
|
-2.73
|
-5.96
|
R
|
33,753
|
12.84
|
30.85
|
29.12
|
-1.73
|
-5.61
|
NP
|
70,055
|
46.24
|
17.78
|
21.76
|
3.98
|
22.38
|
Other
|
14,145
|
29.95
|
5.54
|
6.03
|
0.49
|
8.84
|
Total not D or R
|
23.32
|
27.79
|
4.47
|
19.17
|
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot
access.
Change is # voters: IAP +9.12%; Lib +57.86%; other 5 parties
+170.00%
Washoe County
Party
|
Change in # Voters
|
% Change
|
% Voter Share - 2012
|
% Voter Share - 2016
|
Difference in Voter Share %
|
% Change
|
D
|
3,701
|
4.77
|
37.60
|
35.86
|
-1.74
|
-4.63
|
R
|
6,197
|
6.74
|
38.08
|
37.25
|
-0.83
|
-2.18
|
NP
|
9,407
|
22.11
|
17.62
|
19.70
|
2.08
|
11.80
|
Other
|
2,757
|
17.03
|
6.71
|
7.19
|
0.48
|
7.15
|
Total not D or R
|
24.33
|
26.89
|
2.56
|
10.52
|
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot
access.
Change is # voters: IAP +2.92%; Lib +57.20%; other 5 parties
+50.18%
Party
|
Change in # Voters
|
% Change
|
% Voter Share - 2012
|
% Voter Share - 2016
|
Difference in Voter Share %
|
% Change
|
D
|
-1,553
|
-3.38
|
27.94
|
24.23
|
-3.71
|
-13.28
|
R
|
12,112
|
14.76
|
49.92
|
51.45
|
1.53
|
3.06
|
NP
|
5,794
|
22.93
|
15.37
|
16.97
|
1.60
|
10.41
|
Other
|
2,312
|
20.80
|
6.77
|
7.34
|
0.57
|
8.42
|
Total not D or R
|
22.14
|
24.31
|
2.17
|
9.80
|
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot
access.
Change is # voters: IAP +15.97%; Lib +63.0%; other 5 parties
+16.76%
Voter registration for the 18 days of October strengthen the
assumption that in addition to turnout, those registered as Non-Partisan and in
minor parties will determine the outcome. Younger voters, those between the
ages of 18 to 34 should also have a major impact. Their numbers grew by just
over 10 percent in these 18 days. That is on top of the seven percent growth
recorded for that demographic in September. Another point that should gain
attention is that in 18 days many of the changes in voter share exceed + / - one-half
percent.
Early voting has begun. As voters head to the polls, the
trend, fewer voters associating with either major political party continues. We will know the true impact in a few weeks.
Party
|
Change in # Voters
|
% Change
|
% Voter Share
|
Difference in Voter Share %
|
D
|
29,102
|
5.30
|
39.44
|
-0.12
|
R
|
17,751
|
3.77
|
33.37
|
-0.61
|
NP
|
25,164
|
9.01
|
20.79
|
0.64
|
Other
|
6,252
|
7.15
|
6.40
|
0.09
|
Total not D or R
|
27.19
|
0.73
|
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot
access.
Change is # voters: IAP +5.06%; Lib +10.73%; other 5 parties
+12.59%
Clark County
Party
|
Change in # Voters
|
% Change
|
% Voter Share
|
Difference in Voter Share %
|
D
|
24,562
|
5.93
|
43.09
|
-0.17
|
R
|
12,382
|
4.36
|
29.12
|
-0.55
|
NP
|
19,277
|
9.53
|
21.76
|
0.64
|
Other
|
4,371
|
7.67
|
6.03
|
0.08
|
Total not D or R
|
27.79
|
0.72
|
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot
access.
Change is # voters: IAP +5.89%; Lib +11.71%; other 5 parties
+11.14%
Party
|
Change in # Voters
|
% Change
|
% Voter Share
|
Difference in Voter Share %
|
D
|
3,249
|
3.56
|
35.86
|
-0.18
|
R
|
2,168
|
2.26
|
37.25
|
-0.66
|
NP
|
3,716
|
7.71
|
19.70
|
0.66
|
Other
|
1,208
|
6.81
|
7.19
|
0.18
|
Total not D or R
|
26.89
|
0.84
|
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot
access.
Change is # voters: IAP +3.0%; Lib +9.50%; other 5 parties +18.08%
Rural Counties
Party
|
Change in # Voters
|
% Change
|
% Voter Share
|
Difference in Voter Share %
|
D
|
1,291
|
3.0
|
24.23
|
-0.29
|
R
|
3,201
|
3.52
|
51.45
|
-0.32
|
NP
|
2,171
|
7.51
|
16.97
|
0.53
|
Other
|
673
|
5.28
|
7.34
|
0.08
|
Total not D or R
|
24.31
|
0.61
|
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot
access.
Change is # voters: IAP +4.25%; Lib +8.44%; other 5 parties
+10.50%
18 – 34 Year Old
Party
|
Change in # Voters
|
% Change
|
% Voter Share
|
Difference in Voter Share %
|
D
|
13,378
|
9.46
|
39.45
|
-0.21
|
R
|
6,168
|
7.17
|
22.87
|
-0.61
|
NP
|
13,914
|
13.16
|
29.68
|
0.82
|
Other
|
3,409
|
11.81
|
8.01
|
0.13
|
Total not D or R
|
37.69
|
0.95
|
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot
access.
Change is # voters: IAP +8.64%; Lib +15.20%; other 5 parties
+16.77%
55+
Party
|
Change in # Voters
|
% Change
|
% Voter Share
|
Difference in Voter Share %
|
D
|
5,951
|
2.56
|
40.05
|
-0.05
|
R
|
4,984
|
2.10
|
40.64
|
-0.24
|
NP
|
3,669
|
4.53
|
14.20
|
0.26
|
Other
|
1,008
|
3.42
|
5.11
|
0.04
|
Total not D or R
|
19.31
|
0.30
|
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot
access.
Change is # voters: IAP +2.78%; Lib +4.02%; other 5 parties
+7.65%
Congressional Districts
Party
|
# Districts Lose Voter Share
|
# Districts Gain Voter Share
|
# Districts No Change
|
Democratic
|
4
|
0
|
0
|
Republican
|
4
|
0
|
0
|
Non-Partisan
|
0
|
4
|
0
|
Other
|
0
|
4
|
0
|
In CD 1 there are over two percent more voters registered as
Non-Partisan than Republican. When minor party registrations are added, the
difference is over eight percent.
State Senate Districts
Party
|
# Districts Lose Voter Share
|
# Districts Gain Voter Share
|
# Districts No Change
|
Democratic
|
20
|
0
|
1
|
Republican
|
21
|
0
|
0
|
Non-Partisan
|
0
|
21
|
0
|
Other
|
0
|
21
|
0
|
In 13 districts (61.90%) the number of voters registered as
Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is
greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the
major parties. This is an increase of one district over September, 2016
State Assembly Districts
Party
|
# Districts Lose Voter Share
|
# Districts Gain Voter Share
|
# Districts No Change
|
Democratic
|
42
|
0
|
0
|
Republican
|
42
|
0
|
0
|
Non-Partisan
|
2
|
40
|
0
|
Other
|
0
|
42
|
0
|
In 29 districts (69.05%) the number of voters registered as
Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is
greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the
major parties. This is an increase of 2 districts over September, 2016
This data reinforces the fact that voters are disillusioned
with the current state of the political landscape and are expressing that
disillusionment by not affiliating with either major political party or any
political party. I do not believe the parties can reverse this feeling in the
near future. They can however, recognize the landscape and adapt to it. The Nevada
Election Modernization and Reform Act of 2017 (NEMRA – 2017) provides the
tool.
