Non-Partisan Voter Registration Trend Returns Despite Approaching Primary

Given the change in voter registration trends favoring the major parties leading up to the presidential caucuses, the question was will that trend continue all the way to the June, 2016 primary. The answer is a resounding NO!

The numbers for April, 2016 were released May 2^nd by the secretary of state and Non-Partisan has returned as the fastest growing block of voters. The only demographic where this not true in in the rural counties where the GOP continues to outpace the other parties. State-wide, in Clark and Washoe Counties, among 18 – 34 year olds and those 55 years old and over, Non-Partisan leads in the percentage of growth and the percentage increase of voter share.

State-Wide

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	10,293	2.05	40.08	0.01
R	5,252	1.28	35.02	-0.28
NP	7,931	3.39	18.93	0.25
Other	1,801	2.42	5.98	0.03
Total not D or R			24.91	0.28

2^nd consecutive month where GOP lost more than ¼ of 1 percent

Clark County

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	9,411	2.52	43.78	-0.03
R	3,766	1.41	30.88	-0.36
NP	7,251	4.38	19.74	0.34
Other	1,590	3.36	5.59	0.12
Total not D or R			25.33	0.46

Washoe County

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	746	0.86	36.57	-0.02
R	795	1.41	38.75	-0.02
NP	503	1.18	18.02	0.05
Other	139	0.88	6.66	-0.01
Total not D or R			24.68	0.04

 Rural Counties

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	136	0.33	25.35	-0.08
R	691	0.83	51.71	0.08
NP	177	0.69	15.40	-0.50
Other	72	0.63	7.04	0
Total not D or R			22.44	-0.50

18 – 34 Year Old

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	5,098	4.13	40.46	0.13
R	1,702	2.20	24.92	-0.39
NP	3,969	4.79	27.33	0.26
Other	845	3.79	7.29	0
Total not D or R			34.62	0.26

2^nd consecutive month where GOP lost more than 1/3 of 1 percent

55+

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	2,336	1.06	40.46	-0.05
R	2,101	0.93	41.11	-0.10
NP	1,547	2.13	13.46	0.13
Other	404	1.50	4.97	0.02
Total not D or R			18.43	0.15

In the legislature, both assembly and senate districts remain unchanged from February with 11 senate districts (52.38%) and 21 assembly districts (50%) having the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or total not registered as either Democratic or Republican either exceeding or  within five percent of one of the major political parties. However, the trend is the same, unaffiliated voters are increasing voter share while the Democratic and Republican Party lose.

There is no reason to expect this trend to reverse before the close of registration for the primary election in May. Given that, I believe it is a safe assumption that turnout for the primary will once again be around 25 percent.

The 2017 Nevada legislative session can address this problem by enacting the Nevada Election Modernization and Reform Act of 2017 (NEMRA – 2017)