February Voter Registration – No Surprise , Just Major Questions

Voter registration statistics for February, 2016 are in and no one should be surprised. However, the changes in voter share do raise two major questions.

Voter registration efforts in February by the presidential campaigns, major political parties, and candidates were successful in adding another 25,712 active voters to the rolls. Combined with January’s increase, 41,661 new voters registered to vote during the first two months of 2016, an increase of 3.48 percent. The Republican Party increased voter share at a higher rate than the Democratic Party state-wide, in Clark County, in the rural counties, and among those 55 years old and over. The Democratic Party out did the GOP in Washoe County and with 18 – 34 year olds. Again, not surprising, the increase in voter share of the two major political parties came at the expense of voter share of Non-Partisan and the minor political parties.

Did the increase in voter share have a positive impact on caucus participation? The answer is mixed. The Republican Party had their highest caucus turnout since the parties went to the caucus system in 2008. That’s not saying much though as only 18 percent of registered Republicans caucused. On the Democratic side, 17 percent of registered Democrats attended the caucus. This was down approximately nine percent from 2008 when there was not an incumbent president running. Combined, only 13 percent of the total electorate bothered to participate. And here lies the questions: Does increased voter share lead to increased voter turnout beyond the small party base? Why should any voter have to compromise their principles, beliefs, or personal integrity in order to cast a ballot?

State-Wide

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	13,851	2.94	39.46	0.31
R	14,212	3.36	35.58	0.42
NP	-1,407	-0.60	18.93	-0.53
Other	-944	-1.26	6.03	-0.20
Total not D or R			24.96	-0.73

Clark County

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	9,914	2.83	43.19	0.25
R	8,758	3.44	31.53	0.38
NP	-304	-0.18	19.67	-0.47
Other	-296	-0.63	5.61	-0.16
Total not D or R			25.28	-0.63

Washoe County

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	2,839	3.49	35.87	0.52
R	2,795	3.15	39.01	0.44
NP	-656	-1.50	18.32	-0.65
Other	-401	-2.45	6.80	-0.30
Total not D or R			25.12	-0.95

Rural Counties

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	1,098	2.78	25.27	0.20
R	2,659	3.32	51.65	0.69
NP	-447	-1.71	16.04	-0.59
Other	-247	-2.14	7.04	-0.30
Total not D or R			23.08	-0.89

18 – 34 Year Old

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	7,690	7.11	39.16	1.10
R	4,205	5.86	25.67	0.43
NP	-110	-0.13	27.73	-1.17
Other	-140	-2.14	7.44	-0.42
Total not D or R			35.17	-1.59

55+

Party	Change in # Voters	% Change	% Voter Share	Difference in Voter Share %
D	2,582	1.21	40.15	-0.03
R	5,394	2.48	41.32	0.49
NP	-787	-1.07	13.53	-0.32
Other	-459	-1.67	5.00	-0.15
Total not D or R			18.53	-0.47

The above trend is similar when looking at individual state assembly and senate districts. In the senate, the changes were small still leaving 11 districts (52.38%) where the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or total not registered as either Democratic or Republican either exceeds or is within five percent of one of the major political parties. In the assembly, 21 (50.00%) districts have the number of voters registered as Non-Partisan or total not registered as either Democratic or Republican exceeding or within five percent of one of the major political parties. This is a decrease of four, however, those four districts do not fall into this category by less than one-tenth of one percent.

Does increased voter share lead to increased voter turnout beyond the small party base? Looking at the numbers for February, the answer has to be no. Given recent primary election turnout, it is doubtful this will change in June. Leading Nevada political analyst Jon Ralston summed it up in his March 2, 2016 Ralston Reports “Trump Effect will continue to resonate in Nevada” when he says: The numbers do not lie. The caucus turnout was 75,000, which more than doubled what it was four years ago but still represents less than 18 percent of the GOP electorate. Compare that to the last two cycles: In the 2014 primary, it was 19 percent, the same as it was in 2012. No reason not to believe the June electorate will be similar to the caucus electorate.”

 Why should any voter have to compromise their principles, beliefs, or personal integrity in order to cast a ballot?  The willingness not to compromise their principals, beliefs, or personal integrity is a high standard we hold those we are voting for to. Voters should not have to compromise theirs. Expanding the voter pool and giving voters a reason to go to the polls, not simply increasing voter share, will increase voter turnout. That is what the Nevada Election Modernization and Reform Act of 2017 (NEMRA – 2017) proposes to accomplish.