Can the Nevada Election Modernization and Reform Act Really Increase Voter Turnout?

Can increasing the pool of eligible voters for the primary election make a positive difference in voter turnout or are there other factors that really determine how many voters bother to cast their ballot? 

With approximately 24% of registered voters in the state ineligible to vote in any primary race but non-partisan ones; judges, school board, sheriff, and city council, the logical assumption would be “yes”. After all, along with those on the fringe of each major party who also tend to be the most vocal, those registered as non-partisan tend to be politically aware and active. Because of their limited choices, however, only about 7 – 8 % go to the polls for a primary.

Overall primary election turnout has dropped substantially since 2008. Going back to 1992, the first year turnout statistics are posted with election results on the Secretary of State’s website, primary turnout hovered close to 30%. Starting in 2008, it dropped to and remains below 20% (except for 2010).

The potential increase can be seen by looking at general election turnout. In non-presidential years, total turnout is close to 60% and over 75% in presidential years. The Secretary of State nor the Registrar of Voters for Clark or Washoe County list turnout by party for the general election so the percentage of registered non-partisans voting cannot be identified, but given the overall turnout difference between the primary and general election, I believe it is a safe assumption to say non-partisans are voting and would turnout in similar numbers for primary elections if given the opportunity. 

But we won’t know for certain unless Nevada enacts the Nevada Election Modernization and Reform Act (NEMRA) because there are other factors; competitiveness of key races, contentiousness of the issues, voter frustration with the political climate, amount of voter outreach and systemic education, that enter in to a voter’s decision to vote or not. It is up to the state and political organizations to turn any negative impact of those factors into positives. NEMRA provides the opportunity.

One comment I get when speaking with legislators and others about NEMRA is “let’s see what happens in California.” This is because our neighbor to the west in 2012 became the most recent state to adopt a top-two non-partisan open blanket primary. But any state considering changes as I am proposing should not look to just one example of the process. The state of Washington has used a blanket primary since 1935. Nebraska has had a unicameral, non-partisan legislature since 1937, and Louisiana has used a top-two primary since 1975.  What does voter turnout look like in these four states?

            Washington – Average primary turnout 2004-2012; 41.19%

            Nebraska – Average primary turnout 2004-2012; 25.98%

            Louisiana - Average primary turnout 2004-2012 – 55.86%*

* Since 1997 Louisiana holds its primary in November with a run-off in December

            California – Average primary turnout 2000-2010 (before top-two); 28.74%

                                Primary turnout 2012; 31.06%

                                Projected final turnout 2014; 25%

                       

These percentages show Nevada does not need to accept drastically low primary voter turnout. Routine turnout over 30% is realistically possible using a non-partisan open blanket primary. The above states advance the top two to the general election. FairVote.org, a leading voting reform organization, believes advancing more than two will further increase turnout. I agree.  That is why under NEMRA, three would advance.

A majority of states use some form of open primary. The most common form allows unaffiliated voters to choose either the Democrat or Republican Party ballot at the polls. This system does not increase turnout to any degree. Looking at Arkansas, Arizona, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Minnesota, Texas, and Virginia, primary election turnout, with minor exception, ranges from below 10% to just under 30%.

A big difference between what other states have enacted and the NEMRA that should also lead to increased voter turnout is the potential for outright election of a candidate in the primary. If one candidate receives at least 50% +1 of the votes cast for a particular office, that candidate is elected to that office. That office would not be contested in the general election. Federal law prohibits this provision from being applied to elections for members of Congress. 

Participation in the political process is a cornerstone of our governmental system. Most citizens’ participation is done through voting. The more people who vote, participate in the system, the more our government, our elected officials, will truly represent the citizens of the state and act in their best interest.

As campaigns shift focus to the general election in November, now is the time for candidates, both incumbents and challengers, to openly support increased participation and commit to improving voter turnout and our electoral process. Now is the time for candidates to say “I will sponsor or co-sponsor the Nevada Election Modernization and Reform Act.  Now is the time for voters to let candidates know this is what they want.