How Well Do Politicians Know What Their Constituents Think

Politicians, whether incumbent or candidate, do not know what their constituents think. Even worse, they may not care. Is this important? What impact could this have on voter turnout? And how does the Nevada Election Modernization and Reform Act (NEMRA – 2017) help resolve this problem?

In a study dated July 17, 2015; “What Politicians Believe About Their Constituents: Asymmetric Misperceptions and Prospects for Constituency Control”, David E. Broockman, Assistant Professor, Stanford Graduate School of Business and Christopher Skovron, Graduate Student, Department of Political Science, University of Michigan studied the perception of constituent opinion of nearly 2,000 state legislators then compared those perceptions to the actual opinions of voters in their districts. The results raise concerns that state legislators are out of touch with the true opinions of their constituents. Campaign activity, the time when politicians have the most direct contact with voters, does not appear to change this mismatch. Given that Broockman and Skovron contacted all candidates, both incumbent and non-incumbent, running for election in 2012 as of August of that year (9,825 of 10.131 for whom they could get contact information) and had a response rate 19.5% (25.6% if just those contacted are used as the base), candidates in Nevada were most likely included in this study.

Overall, politicians’ perception of their constituents’ opinion was off by over 10%. Conservative candidates and incumbents over-estimated their constituents’ opinion on conservative issues by more than 20%. These numbers did not change when the authors did a follow-up study immediately after the election in November. Additionally, candidates running in the same district had different perceptions of the opinions of the same constituents more than 20% of the time. You can read the study here.

If public opinion is supposed to be the force behind decisions made by our elected representatives and their perception of that opinion is not accurate, just whose opinion is being represented? Better yet, how can these wrong perceptions be corrected?

Is this important? Yes. Representative democracy requires elected officials to accurately understand the opinions of those they represent and express that understanding so voters can make more informed decisions at the polls. Likewise that understanding will allow those elected to make decisions that realistically reflect the desires of their constituents. Perhaps this is why voters believe politicians represent only the interests of a select few.

What impact could this have on voter turnout? Potentially quite a bit. When voters do not see their opinions being addressed and / or acted upon by those they elect, they could lose interest. Attitudes of “why bother” and “my vote is not important” are allowed to take hold.

For incumbents and candidates to have an accurate perception of their constituents opinions they need to focus on a greater number of potential voters. At the same time, voters need to believe their involvement in the electoral process matters and their opinions are valued. This is how the Nevada Election Modernization and Reform Act (NEMRA – 2017) can help resolve this problem.

By focusing on a single general election held in November using ranked choice / instant runoff voting (RCV / IRV), candidates must concentrate on the entire electorate rather than just 20% of political party loyalists (average turnout for primary elections where most races are really decided). They are not only looking to be the first choice of voters, but also looking to be the second choice of voters not willing to fully support them. To be successful, they will have to accurately comprehend the opinions of all their constituents and convey how they will act on those if elected. Elected officials win because by accurately understanding the beliefs of their constituents they can make decisions reflecting the true will of those they represent. Constituents win by knowing those they elected truly represent them, that their opinions and their votes matter.   

In February, 2017, those we elect or re-elect next year to represent us in the Nevada legislature will take their seats in either the assembly or senate. They can show their willingness to discuss this important issue by filing a bill draft request (BDR) and then introducing the bill. By enacting NEMRA – 2017, the Nevada legislature can take the lead and show the nation that state leaders are willing to change the electoral process for the better, recognizing the importance of all voters.  

How Serious Are The Democratic and Republican Party About Regaining Membership

It’s no secret; I point this out every month. The two major political parties have been, and continue to, lose share of registered voters. These voters are not switching parties. They are registering to vote as Non-Partisan. They are choosing not to affiliate with any political party knowing full well they will no longer be able to vote in primary elections or participate in party caucuses. This is happening even as we approach the February, 2016 presidential caucuses and the June, 2016 primary election.

As voters leave the parties, they take their money with them. Neither party can afford this as members are donating to national PAC’s and Super-PAC’s instead of the local party.

Both major political parties know why this is happening. In spite of this, they appear to be unable, or unwilling to stop it. They say they have to make their current positions on issues more appealing to one demographic or another. But I doubt that will reverse the trend of lost support.

Why:

•  Are voters fleeing the Democratic and Republican Parties?
•   Did only 8% of active Republican and 3% of active Democratic voters participate in the 2012 presidential caucuses?
•  Did only 19% of active registered voters participate in both the 2012 and 2014 primary elections?
•  Did only 45% of voters cast ballots in the 2014 general election?
•  Do 57% of State Assembly districts have a difference of less than 5% between the number of voters not registered as either Democratic or Republican and those that are? (In 38% the number not Democratic or Republican is greater)
•  Do 64% of State Senate districts have a difference of less than 5% between the number of voters not registered as either Democratic or Republican and those that are? (In 43% the number not Democratic or Republican is greater)
•  Is the percent of voter share for the Democratic and Republican Parties falling month after month while the percent of Non-Partisan voters is increasing?

 The answer to these questions is simple. The parties have, for one reason or another, staked out positions on the issues that are on the far left or far right of the ideological scale with no room for differences of opinion.  Campaigns and legislative action tend to be based on what is best for the party brand rather than what is best for all constituents. This has left a small minority of vocal, ideologically pure party members in control. Voters have been alienated.  They believe they have been abandoned by the parties. Accordingly they have given up party registration. As it is human nature to want to belong, this decision has most likely been very difficult. But even more disturbing, they have given up on participating in elections.

Lower voter turnout, mostly the so-called party base, requires many candidates to take positions outside their normal comfort zone to get the party nomination then struggle to find a way to not lose that base while convincing the broader spectrum of voters to support them in the general election. If they are successful in being elected, they must often choose between doing what is best for their entire constituency or cast votes that please a vocal yet small percentage of the party. The decision could decide if they are challenged by another party member in the next election.

How then do the Democratic and Republican Party stop the “bleeding”, make it easier on their candidates and elected officials, and get the voters who have left to return? The answer again is simple.

Lawmakers of both parties need to pass legislation that enacts an election system making it easier and less risky for candidates to take positions allowing them to remain in their comfort zone. That allows them to appeal to the broader electorate without jeopardizing their chance for election and subsequent success as an elected representative. That allows them and the party to adopt positions that attracted those who left to join in the first place.  The Nevada Election Modernization and Reform Act (NEMRA) provides such a system.

By changing the way Nevada conducts its elections, requiring candidates to address all voters, both parties will benefit.  By returning to positions that represent the voters who also “lean” or who are truly in the middle rather than just those who are ideologically pure, those who left will once again feel they belong and possibly rejoin the party. With them will come their donations of time and money.

The decision is up to the legislators who will be the 2017 Nevada Legislature. They can decide to retain the current path of voter registration, intra-party dissention, and low voter turnout or return the electoral and legislative process to a place where collaboration, consensus building, and problem solving take priority.  The later will allow the Democratic and Republican Party to regain membership.

Pre-filing a bill draft request (BDR) will show legislators are serious about solving this problem. How serious are the Democratic and Republican Party about regaining membership? Legislators will have to answer that question.

Non-Partisan and Minor Party Voters Outpacing Dem’s or GOP in State Senate and Assembly Districts

In less than three months, the Democratic and Republican Parties will hold their presidential nominating caucuses and in just short of seven months, their primaries for federal, state, and county offices. Yet according to the voter registration data released November 5, 2015 for the month of October, 2015 by the Nevada Secretary of State’s office more voters continue to register as Non-Partisan than either Democrat or Republican.

As campaigns increase intensity, focus will be on individual districts. In 42.86% of State Senate districts (9 of 21), the number of voters not registered as either Democratic or Republican is higher than one of those parties. In State Assembly districts, that number is 38.09% (16 of 42).  In Congressional districts, 26% of voters are not registered in one of the major parties.  In CD1, the number in this group tops the number registered as Republican.

The numbers continue to highlight the growing dissatisfaction of voters and the need for the reforms proposed in the Nevada Election Modernization Act (NEMRA).

State-Wide

Party	# Registered Voters	Increase	% of Increase	% Voter Share	% Change from September
D	480,147	1,409	0.29	39.28	+0.03
R	423,439	662	0.16	34.66	-0.02
NP	241,381	963	0.40	19.74	+0.03
O	77,552	-254	-0.32	6.34	-0.04

Clark County

Party	# Registered Voters	Increase	% of Increase	% Voter Share	% Change from September
D	362,312	3,825	1.07	42.93	-0.02
R	258825	2,666	1.04	30.67	-0.02
NP	172,806	2,352	1.38	20.47	0.05
O	50,017	493	1.0	5.93	0

Washoe County

Party	# Registered Voters	Increase	% of Increase	% Voter Share	% Change from September
D	79,774	967	1.22	35.18	-0.01
R	87,130	1,000	1.16	38.42	-0.04
NP	43,423	652	1.52	19.15	0.05
O	16,447	226	1.39	7.25	0.01

   

18 – 34 Year Olds

Party	# Registered Voters	Increase	% of Increase	% Voter Share	% Change from September
D	109,971	1,320	1.21	37.58	0.19
R	73,243	372	0.51	25.03	-0.04
NP	86,156	431	0.5	29.45	-0.05
O	23,227	-113	-0.05	7.94	-0.09

55 and Over

Party	# Registered Voters	Increase	% of Increase	% Voter Share	% Change from September
D	216,150	-31	-0.01	40.51	-0.05
R	214,439	570	0.27	40.29	0.06
NP	74,580	212	0.29	13.98	0.03
O	27,881	-89	-0.32	5.22	-0.03

Rural Counties

Party	# Registered Voters	Increase	% of Increase	% Voter Share	% Change from September
D	38,061	-3,383	-8.16	25.08	-0.63
R	77,484	-3,004	-3.73	51.05	1.12
NP	25,152	-2.041	-7.51	16.57	-0.3
O	11,088	-973	-8.7	7.3	-0.18