The Nevada
Secretary of State’s office released the
voter registration numbers for August, 2015 on September 1st and
while the changes are small; only 2,308 new voters joined the rolls, they
continue to tell a story.
Again, the biggest gain in percentage
of active registered voters was experienced in those registered as Non-Partisan;
+ 0.05 percent. The Democratic Party was not far behind, increasing by 0.03
percent. The numbers, however, were not good for the GOP and minor political
parties. The GOP’s share of active registered voters fell by 0.02 percent while
the minor political parties’ share fell by 0.06 percent. Looking at the raw
numbers, the Democratic Party grew by 1,323 voters or 57.3 percent of new
registrants, Non-Partisan added 941; 40.8 percent of those registering in
August, and the GOP, while losing share added 559 voters or 24.2 percent of new
voters. Minor parties not only lost the largest share of voters, they actually
lost 535 registered voters. The percentage of voters choosing not to affiliate
with either the Democratic or Republican Party remained at 26 percent (19.7 NP,
6.3 minor parties)
Reviewing the demographics raises an interesting question;
what happened in the rural counties? Registration in the 15 rurals fell by over
6,400 voters. While all groups, Democratic, Republican, Non-Partisan, and minor
parties all lost voters, the resulting numbers have the GOP with just under 50
percent; 49.9 vs 49.5 in July. The Democratic, Non-Partisan, and minor parties
share all fell slightly.
Minor parties did not fare well in other demographics. They
were unchanged in Clark County but lost registrants and share in Washoe County,
among 18 – 34 year olds and those over 55 years old.
How did the others do? In Clark County, the Democratic Party
lost a slight share of voters while the Republican Party’s share was unchanged
and Non-Partisan had a slight increase. 26.3 percent, up slightly, choose to
not identify with either major party (20.4 NP, 5.9 minor party) In Washoe
County, Democratic and Non-Partisan share were unchanged from July. The GOP
showed a slight increase. Because of the fall in minor party registration, the
number of Washoe County voters not affiliating with either major party decreased
from 26.5 percent in July to 26.3 percent in August (19.0 NP, 7.3 minor
parties)
Among the age categories, 62.5 percent of new voters 18 -34
years of age registered with the Democratic Party and 34.3 percent registered
as Non-Partisan. In this group, the Democratic Party’s share rose slightly, the
Non-Partisan remained unchanged and the GOP fell slightly. Again, because of
the decline of minor party registrants, the total percentage of voters not
affiliated with the major parties dropped from 37.7 percent in July to 37.6
(29.5 NP, 8.1 minor party) in August. In the 55 and older group, the share of
voters remained unchanged; 40.6 Democratic, 40.2 Republican, 13.9 Non-Partisan.
I understand some may question why I am reporting what are
basically minor fluctuations. Given the differences are in the tenths and
hundredths of a percent, aren’t the numbers really unchanged? These people may be right. But nickels and
dimes become dollars. As we get closer to February and the presidential
caucuses and then to June and the primary, these small changes could result in
significant differences. If the trend continues and the percentage of voters
who voluntarily give up their right to participate in these events steadily
increases, the dissatisfaction and frustration with both the Democratic and
Republican Party will be difficult to ignore.
