As the trend in voter share favoring Non-Partisan and minor
parties continues, (click here for
August, 2017 data) it now appears that come the 2018 general election, more
voters could be registered to vote in those categories than will be registered
as either Democratic or Republican. If the change in voter share between August
2016 and August 2017 is applied, those registered as Non-Partisan or as a
member of a minor party will be over 30 percent. Among voters 18 to 34 years
old, that number will be over 40 percent. And while not quite reaching parity,
this number will be over 25 percent in the rural counties and over 20 percent
among those 55 years of age and older. These numbers are an estimate based on
the past year’s change in voter share. My personal opinion is they will be
higher. I doubt they’ll be lower.
Back to last month. On the outward appearance, minor parties
appear to have fallen in August, 2017. However, the decrease is due to a glitch
where the system assigned new voters who did not specify a party to “other”
rather than “Non-Partisan.” Bottom line, the two major parties lost voter
share.
Again, the GOP did not lose as badly as the Democratic
Party. While the Democratic Party lost voter share across all demographics and
almost all state senate and assembly districts, the GOP remained unchanged
state-wide and had slight increases in voter share in Clark County, the rural
counties, and among those 18 to 34 years of age. The GOP also gained voter
share in more state senate and assembly district than they lost share.
State-Wide
Party
|
Change in # Voters
|
% Change
|
% Voter Share
|
Difference in Voter Share %
|
D
|
603
|
0.10
|
39.14
|
-0.09
|
R
|
1,657
|
0.34
|
33.10
|
0.00
|
NP
|
3,518
|
1.13
|
21.21
|
0.17
|
Other
|
-988
|
-1.01
|
6.55
|
-0.09
|
Total not D or R
|
|
|
27.76
|
0.08
|
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot
access.
Change is # voters: IAP +0.40%; Lib +0.80%; other 5 parties -7.30%
Clark County
Party
|
Change in # Voters
|
% Change
|
% Voter Share
|
Difference in Voter Share %
|
D
|
1,011
|
0.23
|
42.75
|
-0.13
|
R
|
1,905
|
0.63
|
28.85
|
0.03
|
NP
|
3,499
|
1.53
|
22.17
|
0.22
|
Other
|
-947
|
-1.43
|
6.24
|
-0.12
|
Total not D or R
|
|
|
28.41
|
0.10
|
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot
access.
Change is # voters: IAP +0.68%; Lib +0.93%; other 5 parties -9.47%
Washoe County
Party
|
Change in # Voters
|
% Change
|
% Voter Share
|
Difference in Voter Share %
|
D
|
-104
|
-0.12
|
35.33
|
-0.04
|
R
|
-116
|
-0.12
|
37.53
|
-0.05
|
NP
|
199
|
0.40
|
19.98
|
0.08
|
Other
|
34
|
0.19
|
7.16
|
0.01
|
Total not D or R
|
|
|
27.14
|
0.09
|
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot
access.
Change is # voters: IAP +0.33%; Lib +0.68%; other 5 parties -0.69
Rural Counties
Party
|
Change in # Voters
|
% Change
|
% Voter Share
|
Difference in Voter Share %
|
D
|
-304
|
-0.68
|
23.94
|
-0.07
|
R
|
-132
|
-0.14
|
51.13
|
0.12
|
NP
|
-180
|
-0.55
|
17.46
|
-0.03
|
Other
|
-75
|
-0.54
|
7.47
|
-0.01
|
Total not D or R
|
|
|
24.93
|
-0.04
|
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot
access.
Change is # voters: IAP -0.68%; Lib +0.36%; other 5 parties -0.73%
18 – 34 Year Old
Party
|
Change in # Voters
|
% Change
|
% Voter Share
|
Difference in Voter Share %
|
D
|
-172
|
-0.11
|
39.22
|
-0.14
|
R
|
448
|
0.50
|
22.55
|
0.06
|
NP
|
1,231
|
1.04
|
30.06
|
0.24
|
Other
|
-525
|
-1.59
|
8.16
|
-0.15
|
Total not D or R
|
|
|
38.22
|
0.09
|
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot
access.
Change is # voters: IAP +0.31%; Lib +0.58%; other 5 parties -7.47%
Party
|
Change in # Voters
|
% Change
|
% Voter Share
|
Difference in Voter Share %
|
D
|
535
|
0.22
|
39.65
|
-0.06
|
R
|
858
|
0.35
|
40.50
|
-0.01
|
NP
|
999
|
1.13
|
14.60
|
0.11
|
Other
|
-116
|
-0.36
|
5.25
|
-0.04
|
Total not D or R
|
|
|
19.85
|
0.07
|
Other includes IAP, Lib, and 5 parties without ballot
access.
Change is # voters: IAP +0.41%; Lib +1.01%; other 5 parties -6.15%
Major party loses also continue in congressional and
legislative districts.
Congressional Districts
Party
|
# Districts Lose Voter Share
|
# Districts Gain Voter Share
|
# Districts No Change
|
Democratic
|
4
|
0
|
0
|
Republican
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
Non-Partisan
|
0
|
4
|
0
|
Other
|
3
|
0
|
1
|
Both CD 1, CD 2, and CD 4 continue to show the number of
voters not affiliated with either major party is greater than or within 5% of
the number of voters registered to one of the major parties.
State Senate Districts
Party
|
# Districts Lose Voter Share
|
# Districts Gain Voter Share
|
# Districts No Change
|
Democratic
|
20
|
1
|
0
|
Republican
|
6
|
13
|
2
|
Non-Partisan
|
1
|
19
|
1
|
Other
|
18
|
2
|
1
|
In 15 districts (71.4%) the number of voters registered as
Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is
greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the
major parties. Note the Democratic Party continues a major loss of voter share.
parties gained voter share in all districts.
Party
|
# Districts Lose Voter Share
|
# Districts Gain Voter Share
|
# Districts No Change
|
Democratic
|
38
|
4
|
0
|
Republican
|
17
|
23
|
2
|
Non-Partisan
|
3
|
38
|
1
|
Other
|
35
|
6
|
1
|
In 31 districts (73.81%) the number of voters registered as
Non-Partisan or the total number not affiliated with either major party is
greater than or within 5% of the number of voters registered to one of the
major parties. This is unchanged from last month. As in the senate, the
Democratic Party continues to experience a major loss of voter share.
As Nevadans continue to lose confidence in the both the
Democratic and Republican Party, look for exciting news in the near future from
Nevadans for Election Reform.